100%conf.

Current Macro Regime

Contraction

GDP declining or stagnant, VIX elevated, credit spreads wide. Defensive positioning.

Updated Jun 18, 2026

Contraction
100%
Expansion
0%
Recovery
0%
Late-Cycle
0%

Macro Indicators

VIX↑
15.32
z=-0.62

Market fear — spikes in crises

10Y–2Y Spread↓
0.47%
z=+0.92

Inverts before recessions

Mfg. Employment→
12605.00K
z=-1.46

Manufacturing activity proxy

Baa/10Y Spread↓
1.57%
z=+0.12

Corporate default risk

Unemployment↑
4.30%
z=+1.77

Labor market health

Regime History — S&P 500 Cumulative Return

Expansion
Late-Cycle
Recovery
Contraction

Transition Forecast — Next Month

Predicted:Contraction(62% · AutoGluon)
Contraction
62%
Recovery
20%
Late-Cycle
17%
Expansion
1%

ExtraTreesGini ensemble · walk-forward validated

Historical Returns by Regime — S&P 500

RegimeMedian/MonthMean/MonthObservations
Expansion
+1.93%+1.73%52 mo
Late-Cycle
+2.73%+2.48%35 mo
Recovery
+1.21%+0.92%140 mo
Contraction
+0.85%+0.13%188 mo

Historical performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology