100%conf.

Current Macro Regime

Expansion

GDP growing, unemployment falling, credit spreads tight. Historically the best period for equities.

Updated Sep 13, 2026

Expansion
100%
Contraction
0%
Recovery
0%
Late-Cycle
0%

Macro Indicators

VIX↓
14.92
z=-0.82

Market fear — spikes in crises

10Y–2Y Spread↓
0.41%
z=-0.99

Inverts before recessions

Mfg. Employment→
12638.00K
z=+2.16

Manufacturing activity proxy

Baa/10Y Spread↓
1.59%
z=-0.95

Corporate default risk

Unemployment→
4.10%
z=-1.66

Labor market health

Regime History — S&P 500 Cumulative Return

Expansion
Late-Cycle
Recovery
Contraction

Transition Forecast — Next Month

Predicted:Contraction(47% · AutoGluon)
Contraction
47%
Expansion
38%
Recovery
15%
Late-Cycle
0%

ExtraTreesGini ensemble · walk-forward validated

Historical Returns by Regime — S&P 500

RegimeMedian/MonthMean/MonthObservations
Expansion
+1.93%+1.71%54 mo
Late-Cycle
+2.73%+2.48%34 mo
Recovery
+1.21%+0.96%144 mo
Contraction
+0.84%+0.14%192 mo

Historical performance does not guarantee future results.

Methodology